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Posted: Friday, 16 May 2008 2:19PM

A toast to the Magellan of Stat Heads




PhilAllard27@hotmail.com

NEW YORK (WCBS 880)  -- He invented the box score.

He invented the E.R.A.

He invented Batting Average.
 
Okay, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad.

Of all the early pioneers of baseball, Henry Chadwick is my favorite. For me, his claim to fame is that he was the first to realize how mathematics could be used to objectively qualify players. He was actually the first sabermatrician in baseball history, and he helped to give shape to a game that was forming as it went.

A member of the first rules committee for the National League, Chadwick was instrumental in explaining the game itself to the reading public with his "Beadle Baseball Player" annual books.

He wasn’t 20 years ahead of his time, he was 100 years ahead of his time when he said in 1875 that the goal of the hitter is “not make an out.” In fact, he kept track of a stat he called “Outs per Game.”  This pre-Cambrian nod to on-base percentage was truly revolutionary, and of course no one understood it at the time.  It would take Bill James, Eric Walker, a host of others and the internet to make OBP a household acronym.

Nowadays, you can walk up to any elderly woman at Dunkin’ Donuts and ask her if she’s seen the new PECOTA predictions and she’ll belt out that, of course, Carlos Pena would suffer a drop-off this year. You can ask her about Barry Zito’s   DIPS and she’s likely to come back with:

“Ya, but it’s his OPS+ of 64 that’s getting to me. Now Bug off.”

A few years ago she wouldn’t know her WHIPs from her DIPS, but thanks to websites like Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times, and Baseball Think Factory…these stats are as readily available as the morning bagel at Dunkin’ Donuts.

The father of all these neophyte saber heads is old Henry Chadwick.

Like most stat heads, Chadwick got a bit touchy when someone didn’t immediately grasp the profundity of his scribbles. In fact, after failing to convince a Washington D.C. newspaper editor of the value of judging a pitcher by earned runs rather than wins, he was overheard shooting at the man:

“For God’s sake…I am surrounded by idiots, and jackals.” 
He was addressing his boss at the time.

Chadwick was cantankerous, he was precise, and he knew he was right. What’s not to love?

Old Henry also wrote what is considered to be the first hard-cover book about baseball, The Game of Baseball, published in 1868. He contributed heavily to the Spalding and Reach Guide, and his newspaper column, Chadwick’s Chat, is considered the first time anyone combined commentary with game accounts. Basically, he wrote about the game whenever he could, and he considered statistics to be a vital component to understanding. “You can’t just go by what you think you see,” he once told a friend. I certainly wish I could borrow Henry for an evening when I try to convince my family that Derek Jeter is a below-average defensive shortstop.

So why I am I writing about him? Well, I guess it beats bellyaching about the Yanks’ current numbers with Runners in scoring position or Robby Cano’s -11 RCAA rating.  And besides, stats are just plain fun. I mean really fun. I can play with them all day long. You know that Baseball Reference Play Index Tool—it’s sublime.

I can hear my Uncle Toby now: “Numbers, numbers, you kids with all your numbers these days. Back in my day, if a pitcher was no good, you just said so without all these numbers.”

Chadwick passed away in 1908, just over a hundred years ago, while he was writing yet another baseball article. His New York Times obituary on April 21 of that year read:

[Chadwick] was the first to write up baseball for the New York Herald in 1862, and was a writer on sports on the New York World for thirteen years, and the New York Sun for six years. For the last 27 years he edited the Spalding Baseball Guide. In 1896 the National League voted him a pension for life as the “Father of Baseball.” 

Something tells me Chadwick would have hated the DH, but he would have loved his computer. Indeed, the father of baseball was wiser than his time, a common fate among geniuses. Hey, you can ask Earl Weaver…he’ll agree.


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