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Posted: Friday, 18 July 2008 3:23PM

The Osgood File: PAPER PLANES IN SPACE, AMERICA'S HEALTH CARE SPENDING TO HIT NEW HEIGHTS, WHY NOW'S A BAD TIME TO RAID YOUR OWN 401(K), SHIFTING GEARS FROM IRAQ TO AFGHANISTAN (July 17, 2008)


NEW YORK (CBS)  -- PAPER PLANES IN SPACE.

Paper planes... in space. Now, I know it sounds crazy, but the Japanese have been looking for an easier way for space probes to re-enter Earth's atmosphere. And they've hit on the idea of Origami paper planes --- Origami planes.

In fact, a prototype paper re-entry vehicle has already passed a durability test in a hypersonic wind tunnel, and so the Japanese space agency will go ahead and launch, into space, paper planes designed by Origami masters --- to test whether they can re-enter the atmosphere, and land back on Earth on their own.

How fast do you think a paper plane could fly?

Well, the plan for these origami planes the Japanese have in mind --- the one now accepted for three years of feasibility studies at 300,000 dollars a year --- is this: you throw several origami paper shuttles into the wake of the International Space Station, which travels at Mach 20.

That is 20 times the speed of sound, which you'd think would shred a paper plane. But with no atmosphere --- no air, no wind resistance, and no cutting stitching or taping whatsoever, since they're made by Origami masters --- the planes remain fully intact.

Origami paper is made of sugar cane fibers that are resistant to heat, wind and water. They'd be sprayed with a special coating and folded into shuttles about eight inches long and four inches wide.

With the coating and rounded edges, and a rounded nose cone, the paper craft would face very little of the heat-generating friction that causes the most damage to vehicles re-entering the atmosphere --- if it enters slowly enough.

Takuo Toda, the head of the Japan Origami Airplane Association --- and project leader Shinji Suzuki, a professor at Tokyo University's Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics --- think the experiment could lead to cheaper re-entry vehicles, and even useful atmospheric probes.

As for the prototypes, they carry only a modest cargo; a message of peace in several languages, and a request to notify the team if you find one.

You could have worse things falling from the sky...


AMERICA'S HEALTH CARE SPENDING TO HIT NEW HEIGHTS.

We spend more per capita on health care in the United States than any other country on Earth: two trillion dollars a year, and counting.

But government economists say that within ten years or less, this is going to double to four trillion.

"Our expectation for growth in national health spending is one of generally steady growth --- at six-point-seven percent per year," said Andrea Sisko, an economist with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

We're living longer now, partly because of improved health care. And this is just the beginning of a long-expected demographic phenomenon.

"The leading edge of the Baby Boom generation will be enrolling in Medicare, so there will be a slight acceleration in growth," Sisko said.

Yes, in the neighborhood of seven percent.

"For something growing at about seven percent per year, it will double over ten years," said Sisko.

One thing you can take to the bank is that as the Baby Boom enters its golden years, the government is going to be picking up a larger share of the health care bill than it does now.

"We will be seeing a change in the distribution from private insurance towards Medicare as more of the Baby Boomers reach Medicare age. And then, as they themselves become older within Medicare, we'll see some of the costs go up there, too," said Sherry Glied, chair of the Columbia University Department of Health Policy and Management. And by the way, for those of you who are new to the planet...

"Keep in perspective the fact that health care costs have been growing faster than inflation since about 1940," Glied said.

Yes, but would that inflation get even worse if the government jumps in? Not necessarily, she says. In fact, maybe just the opposite.

"I suspect that if the government paid for an even bigger share than they do now, they might really be pushing hard on those prices --- trying to bargain costs down and maybe bring the costs down a little bit," Glied added.

Seriously, government health care actually bringing costs down? Quite possible, she says.

"We've gotten a lot of value from our health care system, but that doesn't mean we couldn't get even more for the money we're spending right now," said Glied.

And when you look at the numbers, there's really no choice.


WHY NOW'S A BAD TIME TO RAID YOUR OWN 401(K).

401(K) accounts are intended for your retirement. But, suppose you need the money now?

"People dip into their 401(K) plans, because they often don't have any other alternative," said Christian Weller of the Center for American Progress.

A study released by the Center for American Progress finds that as of 2004, workers had borrowed a total of 31 billion dollars against their retirement accounts.

That's actually one of the advantages of private retirement accounts: it's your money to spend or to borrow, unlike Social Security. The only disadvantage is that, well, it's your money to spend or to borrow, unlike Social Security. And if you do it too often, you end up moving in with the children.

Weller wrote the study --- and he says it's tempting, especially now.

"People are dipping into retirement when the economy is turning south," Weller said.

But that means you'd be selling some your stock at the worst possible time.

"People are already losing wealth because of lower house values, lower stock prices. And now they're dipping into their stocks at a time, and dipping into their 401(K)s at a time when it actually would be best to save more," said Weller.

The study shows that even withdrawing only $5,000 --- if you do it early in your career --- could mean ending up with 22% less to retire on, and it's even worse if you don't repay it right away.

"Then you have to pay income taxes and a penalty of 10 percent on the outstanding loan amount," Weller said.

Remember that as pensions and Social Security drop in value, a beefy 401(K) can be the difference between a retirement at Del Boca Vista ... and the Exit 164 Overpass. As it is, 80% of American workers don't put away enough to maintain their lifestyle, even if they never take anything early.

I point this out just as a reminder that in the ownership society, decisions made today can have consequences 30 years from now. If you're worried about outliving your nest egg, you can either save more, spend less --- or, you could just to go back to the old Twinkie and cigarette diet. That works, too...


SHIFTING GEARS FROM IRAQ TO AFGHANISTAN.

Even critics of the Iraq War now have to acknowledge that the surge made a difference. Violence in Iraq is down enough that the Iraqi Army can realistically talk about finally taking over.

But it doesn't necessarily mean a break for an overextended American military. Finally getting Iraq right just means the generals can now concentrate on getting Afghanistan right.

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen almost seemed surprised the surge had improved conditions in Iraq so dramatically.

"I did not expect that those conditions would be at such a level that I could walk the Jamilla market in Sadr City, or visit an outpost in what had recently been one of the most violent neighborhoods in Mosul," Mullen said.

The last of the President's five additional combat brigades has already left the country. And Admiral Mullen says he may be able to recommend even further troop reductions in the next few months.

But there will be no time to party just yet, because taking more troops out of Iraq just frees up the manpower for the other fire that's still burning in the neighborhood --- that being, Afghanistan.

"There is a real need to do something on the Pakistani side of the border to bring pressure to bear on the Taliban and some of these other violent groups," said Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

Gates is trying to free up more troops to go over there. But that won't be easy --- because even with the surge officially over, there are still more troops in Iraq than before it began.

Which brings us to the political strategizing: in September, General Petraeus is scheduled to tell Congress how many more troops he plans to bring home from Iraq.

If Iraq continues going well, he'll be able to announce --- at about the time of the Republican Convention --- that thousands of soldiers will soon be reunited with their families. He could potentially bring home 15,000 more soldiers, in fact, before the end of the year --- and still keep the troop levels the same as they were before the surge.


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