NEW YORK (WCBS 880) -- As some New York sports fans know, Mike and the Mad Dog are down in Tampa this week to check in on the Yanks' Spring Training and do some interviews.
I figured this would be a good chance to hear from the like of Girardi and Cashman, so I put them on YES yesterday and let Russo's shrill voice cascade through my den.
When they interviewed Brian Cashman, the subject of "babying" the pitchers came up-specifically Joba Chamberlain, who is slated to start the year in the bullpen in order to limit his innings.
The point that eludes Russo, mainly because he has trouble listening to anyone, is that Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi, Dave Eiland, Nardi Contreras, Mike Fishman and company are well aware that a young pitcher's risk of injury is dramatically increased if he shows an increase of say, more than 30 innings from year to year in the early part of his career.
This is not new information (unless you're Mike and the Mad Dog). There have been numerous studies on this, not only from writers with strong saber bents like Nate Silver and Will Carroll, but also from more well-known mainstream writers like the venerable Tom Verducci, who notes:
"The Yankees are risking his health and his future if they think Chamberlain is going to start 32 times and throw 210 innings."
To continue with Verducci's study:
"In 2005 and '06 I found 17 pitchers I defined as at-risk of the YAE (Year after Fact). None made it through the next year without an injury or a higher ERA. Ten of them broke down, the most seriously hurt being Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibel Sanchez. Eleven of them had worse ERAs, by an average of about a run and a half. Remember, it's a general rule; there are exceptions, the superlative Justin Verlander being one."
The point here is simple. The Yankees made an organizational decision the last few years to develop high-ceiling-talent pitching prospects. Now, in a few short years, they have developed some amazing talent. Why would they put it all to risk by increasing their innings to a level were they will break down?
It also bodes very well for Yankee fans when Cashman says:
"I think that the system has been restocked to some degree but that can't stop now. We have to keep it going. But we are going to be aggressive with high-ceiling, high-talent players. We have been in the past conservative, but I definitely want to change that focus and work to enjoy the fruits of that labor."
The fact is that pitchers are babied now from an early age. As such, they can not simply come to the majors (as Russo suggests) and throw 300 innings. Those days of Sandy Koufax (whose career was shortened at an early age due to elbow woes) and Bob Gibson are gone…like it or not. Pitchers now must build up endurance incrementally, or face the glare of the physician's knife.
Mike and Chris also argue vehemently on their show that Joba should remain forever in the pen and serve as an apprentice to Mariano Rivera.
Personally, I trust Brian Cashman on this. The team knows that Joba Chamberlain's main long-term benefit to the team is as a starter. He will be most helpful getting those first 18 outs or so every 5th day. But there simply are not enough innings this year for him to start all year long. That's the reason he will start in the pen. The fact that the Yanks have a need right now for a set-up man to Rivera is secondary.
You don't take a guy like Chamberlain, who has command of 4 pitches, and limit him to the 8th or 9th inning…not for the long haul. Talent like that belongs in the rotation. Period.
Everyone seems to understand this except for Mike and Chris.
Blanton Bronx Bound?
In other news, The San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Yanks are scouting the A's Joe Blanton. If Billy Beane is truly attempting to rid Oakland of all its major league talent, who are the Yanks not to partake in the fire sale?
At first take, Blanton is unimpressive. He doesn't strike people out, he does not have overwhelming stuff, he gives up a lot of hits, and he is not the kind of pitcher any batter fears.
He is also exactly what the Yanks need. Blanton is a professional innings eater. He is durable and can keep his team in the game while resting the pen. Because the Yanks have the kids on strict innings counts, and Mussina can no longer go long into games, it's pretty important to have another starter who can pile up innings.
Last year in the A.L., Blanton was 2nd only to C.C. Sabathia in innings pitched.
AMERICAN LEAGUE 2007
INNINGS PITCHED
1 C.C. Sabathia 241
2 Joe Blanton 230
3 Roy Halladay 225.1
4 John Lackey 224
5 Dan Haren 222.2
6 Johan Santana 219
7 Javier Vazquez 216.2
8 Gil Meche 216
9 Andy Pettitte 215.1
T10 Fausto Carmona 215
T10 Jamie Shields 215
Perhaps as important, Blanton doesn't walk anyone…only 40 men in 230 innings last year. Despite his poor K rate, he was still 7th in the league in K/BB ratio.
AMERICAN LEAGUE 2007
STRIKEOUTS/WALKS
1 C.C. Sabathia 5.65
2 Jamie Shields 5.11
3 Josh Beckett 4.85
4 Johan Santana 4.52
5 Javier Vazquez 4.26
6 Erik Bedard 3.88
7 Joe Blanton 3.50
8 Dan Haren 3.49
9 John Lackey 3.44
10 Paul Byrd 3.14
I say give Blanton a long look. If Beane doesn't want too much, pull the trigger on the deal.
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