It's All Right Ma, They're Only Bleeding

NEW YORK (WCBS 880)  -- Chaos is a friend of mine
                   -Bob Dylan

Through 44 games, the Yankees record sits at 20-24, good for last place in the American League East and third worst record in the American League, ahead of just Seattle and Detroit. In the American League, only Toronto and Kansas City have scored fewer runs.

Make no mistake about it, the Yanks have earned every bit of their record. The Yankees dismal average of 4.09 runs per game is indicative of their malaise, and their batting average with runners in scoring position is too ornery to post on this column, lest the kiddies be reading. 

The numbers below show where the Yankees, by individual, stand at Runs Created Above Average, courtesy of Lee Sinins’ Baseball Encyclopedia. Jose Molina’s -8 stands out in particular. His clueless at bats are becoming comical, and his OBP of .224 and OPS+ of 48 are inexcusable. No one expects him to be Jorge Posada, but have you ever seen someone simply give away at bats in such a manner. One would think that, as a catcher, he might have a better idea of the strike zone and take a few walks.

Robby Cano remains a strange case. Time will tell if he will take off in June and hit like an All-Star as he did last year. He certainly has the talent. Still, at this point, the only batters in the league with a worse RCAA rating are Orlando Cabrera and Asdrubal Cabrera. And his OPS+ of 56 is, well, Molinian.

Yankees RCAA

Hideki Matsui         7
Johnny Damon       5
Alex Rodriguez        4
Jason Giambi         3
Bobby Abreu            2
Derek Jeter              2
Wilson Betemit       1
Melky Cabrera         1
Jorge Posada         0
Chad Moeller          0
Chris Stewart          -1
Shelley Duncan      -2
Alberto Gonzalez     -2
Morgan Ensberg     -5
Jose Molina             -8
Robinson Cano      -11

The Yanks woeful offense, combined with the failures (so far) of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, have been the main culprits to the Yankee abysmal season. Their defensive holes at 1B, SS, and LF don’t help either, of course.

The fine seamheads over at the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog pointed out before the 11-2 Mets debacle that the Yankees are “48 runs below expectations even accounting for the injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. That's five wins, and it at least partially explains why they are 20-23. If the offense had played as expected, they'd be 25-18, which is a 94 win pace and right around where they should have been. Offense is down in the AL by around 11% this season, but the Yankees are scoring 20% less frequently…”

And just a quick aside, take a look at the Yankees’ 40-man roster and see how ridiculously loaded it is with pitchers. Right now, the only position player the Yanks could call up without adjusting the 40-man roster is Juan Miranda. This team has no flexibility, no way to maneuver a bench, no where to go until they hit bottom.

Perhaps the best news that Yankee fans will get all year is that $86 million is eligible to come off the payroll after this season.

I admit that the Yank’s high payroll bothers me, but not because it gives the Yanks’ a perceived competitive balance. I am all for the Yanks having an edge over the competition, but handing out huge long-term contracts based on past success is not the way to build a champion. That has been proven time and time again.

To that end, the biggest off-season mistake the Yanks made was not passing on Johan Santana, it was signing Jorge Posada to a 4-year contract at the age of 36. There is very little chance Posada will be worth $13.1 million a year over the next 4 years.

Billy Beane does it right. Sign a high-ceiling college kid, pay him peanuts while he excels for you, then let him go when he commands a high free agency price. In most cases, you will have already gotten his best years, particularly in this post-steroid era.

Does anyone think Theo Epstein was wrong not to give Pedro Martinez or Johnny Damon four more years after their best years were gone? Of course not. Does anyone think that Jason Giambi was worth $120 million for 7 years, or Carl Pavano $40 million for 4 years?

The list bellows shows the $86 million eligible to come off the payroll for the 2009 season. If Brian Cashman has his way, the Yanks will continue to develop the farm system. If Hank Steinbrenner has his way, the Yanks will likely sign some over-valued free agents.

My money is on Hank further destroying the franchise, unless he reads MoneyBall and is visited by a kind baseball fairy. Even if none of these players are re-signed, Hank will clearly build the payroll back up with other signings, like Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia.

However, the Yanks are in a unique position to do the right thing here. It will be fascinating to watch.

Contracts coming off the 2009 payroll (Figures are 2008 yearly salaries in millions of dollars.)

Giambi           $21
Abreu             $16
Pettitte           $16
Mussina        $11
Pavano          $11
Farnsworth   $5.5
Hawkins        $3.5
Ensberg         $1.75
Betemit           $1.16
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Total            $86.9