Let me get this out of the way from the outset. I am normally opposed to referring to a ballplayer by a nickname such as "Eye Chart," particularly when the moniker was coined by fans that follow some 3rd place also-ran team.
However, since typing Doug Mientkiewicz's name throughout an article is surely to result in a nasty case of carpal tunnel syndrome, I am left with few options. (Unless I'm playing scrabble; then I'm aces.)
Be that as it may, it's obvious that Eye Chart was not brought to Yankee Stadium for his offense.
Although he hit over .300 in two previous season with the Twins: .306 in 2001 and .300 in 2003, he has never been much of a slugger and his offense has steadily declined since 2003, his last year with the Twins.
For 2007, various saber pundits have worked out the following projections for the former Red Sox first baseman:
His Majesty, Bill James (from the Master's handbook):
7/ 34/.260/.349./.401
Chone Smith:
7/38/.256./.337./.381
Tom Tango:
9/43/.260/.337/.402
Dan Szymborski at the Baseball Think Factory:
6/36/.255/.342/.383
All these fall below the league average for 1st Base:
AL: .280/.352/.467
The best of Doug's numbers is his on-base percentage, which borders on the positional average of .352. The following chart (courtesy of www.fangraphs.com) shows that he's hovered near an acceptable zone over the last five years:
According to baseballreference.com, the most similar hitters through age 32 are Gerald Perry, Sid Bream and John Mabry. None of these gentlemen can be confused with Lou Gehrig, or Walt Dropo for that matter. And when you consider that Doug is coming off back surgery, his offensive picture does not get any rosier.
Eye Chart once said: "I don't want to sit at all, but then again I don't want to strap my manager. He's trying to win games." Truer words were never spoken.
Unless you consider his quote from last year:
"It was the second time in my career that I've ever done it, been the DH. I asked Buddy [Bell] if he was trying to get fired... He laughed."
Because Mientkiewicz will platoon with either Andy Phillips or Josh Phelps, he is only expected to have between 292 and 361 at bats. But when he starts, he is likely to be the worst hitter in the lineup.
Therefore Eye Chart will clearly need to prove his value defensively. What can we expect? In the 2006 Fielding Bible awards, Bill James' panel of ten experts had him ranked 3rd in the majors behind Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira.
(It's worth noting, of course, that fielding premium is higher on the left-side than the right-side, as James and Tango have proved in their extensive studies.)
It's interesting to note, too, that Chris Dial in his Ultimate Zone Rating for 2006 also had Eye Chart rated third, just ahead of Andy Phillips.
The point here is that Yanks already have a good defensive 1st baseman who can't hit well. And at least Phillips is a right-handed hitter on this predominantly
left-hand hitting team.
This of course begs the question whether the Yanks need two defensive 1st baseman on the team, when neither can hit well. When you consider that the one guy who can hit well, Josh Phelps, will most likely not make the team, it makes you shake your head.
When asked about the Phillips/Phelps competition, Manager Joe Torre said:
"He [Phillips] gives you a little more versatility that Josh Phelps doesn't give you. He gives you that emergency, extra utility infielder. So that certainly is a consideration."
For those that understand Joe speak, Phillips is a made man. He's on the team. That means Phelps' .435 performance this spring was for naught.
Consider 2006, for example, when Kevin Thompson exhibited all the tools you would want in a reserve outfielder: good defense, speed, and potential power. Instead Uncle Joe petitioned Cashman for Bubba Crosby. Whenever Torre is faced with an option, he will choose the one that is more recognizable to him, whether it helps the team or not.
No doubt Phelps will suffer the same fate as Thompson did last year. It's a pity because the Yanks will lose him. As a Rule #5 man, the rules stipulate that Phelps will be returned to Baltimore if he does not make the Yankees' 25 man roster.
Imagine that, with Phelps, the Yanks could have a bonafide pinch hitter for Eye Chart in the late innings. That could really improve their bench.
Hey, don't get me wrong. I think the world of Andy Phillips as a person. Heck, I even sponsored his page at baseballreference.com. But Andy doesn't fit this team since Eye Chart is here.
To bottom line this: Eye Chart should not be on the team, but he is. Therefore, Phillips should not be on the team, but he will be. And that means a guy who can help this team win, Josh Phelps, will be gone.*
Such is life in the bizarre world of Uncle Joe; he's loyal to a fault.
And brothers and sisters, what a fault he is.
* Phelps' ZIPS projections for 2007, based on 426 at bats: 21/72/.279/.338/.486.
Granted, Phelps would not have gotten 426 at bats, but the projections suggest what people smarter than me think of Phelps' power.
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