The Yankee starting pitching-arguably the most important aspect of any team's roster and arguably the weakest aspect of the Yank's roster-has been further diluted this week.
First came the announcement that Andy Pettitte was suffering from a sore back. He missed a Spring Training Start but came through a bullpen session Monday and Yankee fans have their fingers crossed that his minor league start on Friday will go well.
Next came the awful news that Chien-Ming Wang will miss at least a month due to a hamstring pull. Wang, despite his low Strikeout rate, has emerged as the Yankee ace.
Then on Sunday, after a second straight poor outing, Jeff Karstens told the team that he's been pitching with a sore elbow.
With Joe Torre not wanting to move up Fussy Mike Mussina one day, and not wanting to subject Kei Igawa to the Opening day hullabaloo, the unthinkable will occur:
The Yanks' Opening Day starter will most likely be Carl Pavano.
You remember Carl… The sore-elbowed, back-aching, fanny-tainted, heavy-legged, Porsche-driving hypochondriac with the fat wallet. He's been everything but a pitcher for the Yanks while he has collected half of his $39.5 million salary thus far.
I can't imagine what the Vegas odds were on Carl being the opening day starter, but they must have been huge.
Torre said, "It's Opening Day, but there are 161 other games. It certainly is an important game, but so are the other ones.
Granted, Opening Day is just one game, so I can't argue with Torre much on this one.
I've been hoping all along that Pavano would stay healthy just long enough to be dealt, but with the injuries that Yanks have had already, it looks like Pavano is staying. As tough as it is to contemplate, the team really needs him now.
As far as the injuries go, Karstens is potentially the most serious. He was pitching superbly until the elbow started bothering him, and knowing the Yanks' history with injuries, his recovery is sure to take some time.
Karsten's injury means that Darrell Rasner will now get a chance to make the team and get at least one start against Baltimore. Certainly Rasner's AAA numbers last year were strong: 58.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 7.21 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9.
Rasner also did nothing to hurt his chances when he pitched for the Yanks late in 2006. I'm still amazed that the Yanks were able to steal this guy from Jim Bowden. (Or should I really be, given Bowden's curious moves in the past? Anyone who thought Christian Guzman would help offensively is not dealing in reality.)
The most disturbing injury, though, is Wang's, simply because of how good he's pitched in a year-and-a-half in the majors.
Wang is a strange case. He emerged on the scene as the Yanks ace last year when he went 19-6 with a 3.63 ERA. As we all know, however, his K/9 ratio of 3.14 was horrendous. How horrendous? Courtesy of Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, we can see that, in 2006, Wang's K/9 rate vs. the league average was the 7th worst in baseball history:
| STRIKEOUTS/9 IP |
YEAR |
DIFF |
PLAYER |
LEAGUE |
| 1 Kirk Rueter |
2004 |
-4.09 |
2.65 |
6.74 |
| 2 Nate Cornejo |
2003 |
-3.99 |
2.13 |
6.11 |
| 3 Joe Niekro |
1969 |
-3.50 |
2.52 |
6.02 |
| 4 Danny Graves |
2003 |
-3.45 |
3.20 |
6.65 |
| 5 Kirk Rueter |
2002 |
-3.41 |
3.36 |
6.77 |
| 6 Scott Karl |
1999 |
-3.32 |
3.37 |
6.69 |
| 7 Chien-Ming Wang |
2006 |
-3.30 |
3.14 |
6.44 |
| 8 Steve Kline |
1972 |
-3.29 |
2.21 |
5.50 |
| 9 Kirk Rueter |
2000 |
-3.28 |
3.47 |
6.75 |
| 10 Ed Lynch |
1983 |
-3.27 |
2.27 |
5.54 |
Cranky-ass Bill James tells us that young starting pitchers with low strikeout rates can be pretty much written off as pretenders and flukes.
But Wang is one that defies normal saber thinking. His sinker is so good that rarely is a ball hit well off him. He allows very few extra-base hits and very few homers. In fact, he led the league in 2006 with 0.5 HRs allowed per 9 innings. His ground ball to flyball ratio was also first in the league: 4.10
And at 3.39 pitches per batter (2nd in the league) he goes deep into games, allowing the bullpen rare days of rest.
Joe Torre told reporters this Spring: "I think there'll probably be more strikeouts from time to time, but [Wang] makes you hit the ball so early in the count... Even though he throws hard, the ball sinks, chances are you'll hit it ... He doesn't hit the fat of the bat very often, but he hits the bat. I think, that being the case, I don't think a strikeout is going to be something that you look for."
The boys over at Baseball Think Factory may not like Chien-Ming, but Yankee fans sure do.
The other pitcher in the rotation, Kei Igawa, looks sharp this Spring with a 2.65 ERA.
Peter Abraham, in his fine blog, took time out from his requisite A-Rod bashing to note the following:
Kei Igawa's line this spring: 17 13 5 5 12 19
Daisuke Matsuzaka's line this spring: 17.2 9 5 4 7 19
Now I know one guy is the greatest pitcher ever and the other guy is a No. 5 starter. But comparing those statistics is pretty interesting.
Oh, and Matsuzaka cost $103 million and Igawa $46 million.
On behalf of all us of "A-Rod fanboys" thanks for pointing that out, Peter. I like those numbers. And I hope these A-Rod homers of late haven't ruined your days.
The bottom line is it's a long season, and the Yanks starting pitching will straighten out…and if it doesn't, can Roger Clemens be far behind?
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