No No Burnett

NEW YORK (WCBS 880)  -- Apparently, Brian Cashman and the Yankees had so much fun paying Carl Pavano $39.5 million to sit around doing nothing for four years, they are willing to throw away even more cash.

Indications from multiple sources, including George King III of the New York Post, are strong that the Yankees will soon offer A.J. Burnett an offer—perhaps in the 5 yr./$80 million range. (The Blue Jays offered him 4 yr./$54 mil to stay north of the border.)

Unlike Pavano, Burnett is not as likely to feign injury or take a year or more to recover from a butt slide, and he is a much better pitcher, but the end result will be the same. The Yanks will be shelling out countless millions to a player who won’t take the mound that often.

For the past six years, Burnett’s IP per year are as follows:

2003    23
2004    120
2005    209
2006    135.7
2007    165.7
2008    221.3

That’s an average of 145 2/3 innings per year, not even enough to qualify for an ERA title.

Perhaps even more troubling, Burnett has topped 200 innings three times, one being last year. But the previous two times he followed up his 200-inning years with seasons cut short by injury. If that trend continues, expect Burnett to hit the DL in 2009.

Joe DelGrippo, of Mike Silva’s NY Baseball Digest, presented an analysis of Burnett’s mechanics which he believes is a major contributor to his shoulder and elbow woes. DelGrippo says:

Burnett’s mechanics reveal he cocks his wrist on his backswing and has his forearm down about the time when his front foot lands. This arm action is the worst mechanics a pitcher can possibly have. He, along with Jake Peavy, both have the “winged” arm action - a tremendous precursor to major elbow and shoulder problems.

What happens is when hands are broken and the throwing hand begins to drop, a pitcher such as Burnett begins his backward rotation with the elbow instead of continuing to lead with the hand in a down, back and up motion. What then happens is that the throwing elbow gets higher than the shoulder at the point of front foot landing, leading to a timing problem. The arm then has to violently come forward very quickly to throw the ball.And while Burnett has had his history of elbow problems, his mechanics over the years have not changed. Burnett is destined for more elbow problems.

Many folks will point to Burnett's sturdy numbers. But the fact that Burnett is an above average hurler when healthy is beside the point. His lifetime ERA+ of 111, 1.2 WHIP and 8.36 K/9 are indeed impressive. New Marcel Projections have just come out that project Burnett at 187 innings with a 3.87 FIP for next year. As accurate as Marcel can be, that seems optimistic to me given Burnett’s history.

The question is how often the Yanks will get that sort of output from Burnett out of the life of that contract. Yankees fans must hope that Cashman stays clear of Burnett. It would be better to sign a more durable Derek Lowe, for fewer years of course.

We all know the Yanks have an enormous amount of money to spend this winter, but if they don’t spend it wisely, they are doomed to be also-rans. Cashman is nothing if not cautious and thoughtful, now would be bad time to abandon those characteristics.

The Recent Damaso Marte contract, however, suggests the Yanks will be willing to overspend like those drunken sailors we’ve heard so much about.

On another note, there has been a lot of clamoring about how a possible tax hike for the wealthy may affect the Yanks’ ability to secure free agents. This notion is totally wrong. If there is a strong tax hike, it will benefit the Yanks a hundredfold. They will continue to spend money while other teams decide to be more fiscally conservative. More players, not fewer, will be available to the Yankees in the years ahead because the residual benefits of this taxation.