NEW YORK (WCBS 880) -- Ever since Chien-Ming Wang burst upon the baseball scene with two consecutive 19-win seasons, his detractors have issued dire warnings that he wouldn't be able to sustain his success.
We've been told he simply does not strike out enough batters. His BAPIP may be low, but he's been lucky, it will eventually get much higher. When you consider the poor defense behind him, it's only a matter of time before he self destructs. And with so few strikeouts, his bad defense will have many more opportunities to show their lack of range and clunky hands.
Wang has been able to amass a career record of 54-22, with a 3.98 ERA mainly because people do not hit the ball hard off him. That the batters have not smashed him in the past is a testament to his heavy sinker, since they know it's coming. Wang throws that sinker about 75% of the time. It tops out at about 96 mph, and usually sits around 93 mph. His next best pitch is a run-of-the-mill slider.
When he is going well, it's all soft grounders that even the likes of Derek Jeter can gobble up with impunity. His lifetime ground ball to fly ball ratio of 2.54 means there is an awful lot of grounders, however, and that means there is luck involved. Some of those grounders make their way to the outfield.
Of course, when Wang is bad-he's really bad. If that sinker isn't working, he gets destroyed like an American Legion pitcher going up against the 1927 Yankees. Double, Single, Double, Walk, Double. Oouch. When is the last time you saw a line like this?
IP: 4.2 ER: 15 K:1 BB:6 WHIP: 4.50 ERA: 28.93
I went to fangraphs and began to chart his two 2009 starts, but it was far too ugly to repeat here.
The question is whether his first two starts are an aberration, or whether his detractors are finally correct. Wang's lifetime K/9 ration is 4.01. That is very low. In fact, As Howard Megdal of the New York Observer points out: "No pitcher has managed a sustained career of excellence striking out fewer than four and a half per nine innings. The far-from-overpowering Tom Glavine checks in at 5.33 per nine. Crafty lefty Jimmy Key came in at 5.33 per nine. Even the change-of-pace specialist John Tudor, whose change-up reputedly couldn't break glass, held a career strikeout mark of 4.94 per nine innings."
Wang seems baffled by his recent problems, and there is no question that he will work hard to correct his problems. Manager Joe Girardi remains positive that Wang can rebound. (Of course, what can you expect the manager to say? He's not going to publicly humiliate the guy.)
Jorge Posada, in an attempt to calm frayed nerves, told reporters: ""Wanger is better than that and he knows it. Right now, he's just going through some delivery problems."
Yankee fans have to hope that the catcher is right. But, time is not on Wang's side. He won't be getting demonstrably better at striking out people as he ages. GM Brian Cashman knows this, and that's why it is very unlikely that the Yanks will offer Wang a lucrative long-term contract. Chances are good that the Yanks already have gotten the best he has to offer. When the descent comes, it will be horrific, kind of like these first two games of 2009.
Unfortunately for Wang, the shelf life on a low strikeout pitcher is very short. Once he starts walking a few more people, surrendering a few more homers or watching his BABIP regress to the mean, then the sheriff will come to the door.
Wang's possible demise is all more reason why Cashman signed both Sabathia and Burnett in the off-season, and one of many reasons why Chamberlain belongs in the rotation. If Wang's season falls apart (and that's still and IF, since he may still turn this around), then Phil Hughes will be summoned. A rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Joba, Pettitte and a rejuvenated Hughes should still excite the masses at Yankee Stadium. It's a long season, and the Yankees' pitching is deep.
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